Group 1: Aluminum Price Trends - Domestic aluminum prices have reached a yearly high, touching 21,000 yuan/ton, marking a 10% increase from the year's low [1] - The outlook for aluminum prices in Q4 remains uncertain, with potential for either upward movement or downward pressure [1][8] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has resumed its rate-cutting cycle, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0% to 4.25% [2] - The Fed's updated projections indicate an increase in the number of expected rate cuts for the year, now anticipated to be three [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 49.4%, indicating continued economic expansion, with forward-looking indicators showing a rise in the EPMI to 52.4% [4] - As of September 22, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 638,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week but down 93,000 tons year-on-year [6] Group 4: Export Challenges - In August, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products fell by 10.2% year-on-year, with cumulative exports from January to August down 8.2% [7] - Many companies are focusing on maintaining existing customer orders, with limited success in expanding into new markets [7] Group 5: Market Outlook - The aluminum market is expected to lack new upward momentum in the short term due to the upcoming National Day holiday and the recent Fed rate cut [8] - Overall market expectations remain optimistic for Q4, with potential policy support anticipated to drive aluminum prices higher [8]
国内进入传统旺季 沪铝仍有上行空间
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-23 23:27