鲍威尔：过度宽松恐失守通胀，紧缩过久也伤就业

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the difficult trade-off between inflation and employment risks, stating that "there is no risk-free path" [1] - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25%, reflecting a shift in risk balance due to increased downside risks in the labor market [2] - Powell noted that the U.S. economy is slowing, with GDP growth of approximately 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% last year, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August [3] Group 2 - Powell acknowledged that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with total PCE prices rising 2.7% and core PCE rising 2.9% over the past 12 months [3] - Market reactions to Powell's speech were cautious, as he did not provide clear guidance on the timing of future rate cuts, contrasting with market expectations for rapid easing [3][4] - Powell indicated that U.S. stock market valuations are "quite high," suggesting that the market may be overreacting to expectations of monetary easing [4]