鲍威尔警告股市估值“相当高”，美股三连涨终结（附演讲全文）

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicates that there is still room for further interest rate cuts while warning about high stock market valuations, which negatively impacted market sentiment and led to a decline in major U.S. stock indices [2][3][9]. Economic Outlook - Powell emphasizes that the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve—full employment and price stability—faces threats, with risks on both sides indicating no risk-free policy path [3][17]. - The current economic environment shows upward risks for inflation and downward risks for employment, leading to a challenging situation [3][17]. - The U.S. economy has shown resilience compared to other developed economies despite facing significant shocks from the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [7][12]. Labor Market - Powell notes that the labor market is not robust, with signs of substantial weakness, and the risk of employment decline has increased [7][14]. - The unemployment rate has slightly risen to 4.3%, but remains low overall, with job growth slowing significantly [14][15]. - The average monthly job additions have dropped to only 29,000 over the past three months, indicating a slowdown in employment growth [14]. Inflation and Tariffs - Powell reiterates that tariffs are expected to have a temporary impact on inflation, leading to one-time price fluctuations that may last several quarters [3][16]. - Current inflation rates are above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%, with the latest data showing a 2.7% increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices over the past year [15][16]. - The increase in prices is primarily attributed to tariffs rather than broader price pressures, with service sector inflation still trending downward [15][16]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has adjusted its monetary policy stance to a more neutral position, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% to 4.25% [17][18]. - Powell maintains that the current policy stance is still moderately restrictive, allowing for better adaptation to changing economic conditions [18]. - The Federal Reserve will continue to evaluate and manage the risks of high inflation and persistent inflation to ensure that price increases do not evolve into a long-term inflation problem [16][17].