阿根廷调整关税政策 油脂油料市场格局生变？

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment of Argentina's export tax policy has led to a significant decline in domestic soybean product prices, with expectations of increased imports from Argentina affecting the market dynamics in China [1][2]. Group 1: Argentina's Export Tax Policy - On September 22, the Argentine government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans, grains, and their products until October 31, reducing soybean export tariffs from 26% to zero and those on soybean oil and meal from 24.5% to zero [1][2]. - The policy has a cap of $7 billion on the total tax exemption, which will be suspended once this limit is reached [1]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Market - Analysts predict that the zero tariff on Argentine soybeans could lower the CNF price for November shipments to $2.00 per bushel, making it approximately $0.70 per bushel cheaper than Brazilian soybeans, translating to a cost reduction of about 200 yuan per ton [1][2]. - Following the announcement, Chinese oil mills have reportedly begun purchasing 10 to 15 shipments of Argentine soybeans [1]. Group 3: Changes in Import Dynamics - Historically, China has imported limited quantities of Argentine oil and meal, with almost no soybean meal imports and only a few thousand tons of soybean oil [2]. - The price advantage of Argentine soybeans may lead to a shift in China's import patterns, increasing competition in the South American oil and meal market and posing challenges to U.S. soybean production [2]. Group 4: Domestic Supply and Demand - As of mid-September, Argentina had exported 8.76 million tons of soybeans in 2025, significantly higher than the 4.5 million tons exported during the same period last year, with an expected additional export of 2 to 3 million tons by year-end [2]. - The domestic soybean market is experiencing a supply gap, with the expectation that increased imports of Argentine soybeans could fill this gap, particularly in the first quarter of 2026 [2][3]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The domestic soybean meal market is expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and the anticipated increase in imports of Argentine soybeans and meal [4]. - Analysts suggest that the demand for soybean meal remains strong due to high livestock and poultry inventory levels, but the overall market may experience downward pressure on prices due to increased supply from domestic production and imports [4].