以旧换新与国补资金使用进展：政策托底下的社零观察

Core Insights - The article discusses the implementation of China's fiscal policy through the issuance of long-term special bonds to support the "old-for-new" policy, which aims to stimulate consumption and upgrade consumer goods [1][6] Special Bonds and Fund Allocation - In 2025, the government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in special long-term bonds, with 300 billion yuan specifically allocated for the "old-for-new" policy [2] - The Ministry of Finance has been distributing funds in batches since the beginning of the year, with a total of 2.3 trillion yuan allocated by the end of Q3, ensuring support for peak consumption periods like "Double 11" and "Double 12" [2] Policy Implementation Status - The rapid consumption of national subsidy funds in the first half of the year led to a surge in the "old-for-new" policy, although some regions faced funding shortages and temporary suspensions [3] - Local governments have implemented measures such as scheduled, limited, and lottery-based distribution to manage fund allocation effectively [3] Structural Effects and Consumption Boost - The scope and standards of the "old-for-new" policy have expanded, now covering 12 categories of household appliances and including digital products like smartphones and tablets [4] - From January to May, retail sales growth was maintained at 5.0%, significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating the rapid and effective transmission of policy stimuli [4] Marginal Effects and Future Outlook - Since June, retail sales growth has slowed due to rapid fund consumption and high base effects from the previous year, with growth rates dropping to 4.8%, 3.7%, and 3.4% from June to August [5] - Despite the diminishing marginal effects of subsidies, retail sales are expected to maintain moderate growth in the second half of the year, supported by the final batch of funds and the year-end consumption peak [5] Summary - The "old-for-new" policy in 2025 has achieved its goals of "funds in place, effects visible, and structural optimization," effectively stimulating durable goods consumption and promoting a shift towards greener and smarter consumption [6] - The sustainability of consumption recovery in the long term will depend on improvements in household income and consumer confidence, indicating that while the subsidy policy provides temporary support, a transition to genuine consumption growth requires stable income and employment [6]