人民币升值动能增强，市场预期基本稳定——8月外汇市场分析报告

Core Insights - In August, the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut strengthened, leading to a depreciation of the US dollar and an increase in the appreciation momentum of the Chinese yuan, while market expectations remained stable [3][4]. Currency Market Analysis - The US dollar index fell from above 100 to 97.8, a decrease of 2.2%, due to weaker-than-expected employment data and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [3]. - The Chinese yuan's central parity rate appreciated for the fourth consecutive month, with an average daily appreciation of 8 basis points from August 1 to 20, and accelerated to an average daily appreciation of 51 basis points in late August [4]. - By the end of August, the central parity, onshore, and offshore exchange rates of the yuan reached 7.1030, 7.1330, and 7.1221 respectively, appreciating by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 1.2% compared to the end of the previous month [4]. Cross-Border Capital Flows - In August, cross-border capital turned into a net inflow, with banks' foreign currency payments shifting from a deficit of $7.7 billion to a surplus of $3.2 billion [13]. - Foreign currency payments contributed significantly to this surplus, with a month-on-month increase of $17.6 billion to $53.2 billion, marking a new high since October 2024 [13]. - Foreign investment interest in Chinese stocks increased, with a net inflow of $10.8 billion in August, the highest since February of the same year [14]. Foreign Exchange Supply and Demand - The bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus narrowed to $16.8 billion, the lowest in four months, indicating a decrease in the willingness to settle foreign exchange [20]. - The ratio of foreign currency receipts to payments fell to 52.6%, the lowest in five months, while the ratio of payments to purchases rose to 62.0%, the highest in nearly seven months [21]. Trade and Investment - The goods trade surplus decreased by $16.5 billion to $72.9 billion, reflecting a slowdown in export revenue collection [18]. - Direct investment foreign exchange payments showed a deficit increase of $4.5 billion to $7.5 billion, with foreign income dropping to $50.2 billion, the lowest for the same period in five years [15].