钢铁行业稳增长工作方案发布，券商预判行业价值开始显现

Group 1 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and four other departments have released a work plan for the steel industry, targeting an average annual growth of around 4% in value added over the next two years [1] - The plan focuses on "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition," proposing measures such as precise control of capacity and output, graded management of steel enterprises, and a ban on new capacity [1] - According to Zhongtai Securities, the demand side is a decisive factor for commodity prices during the recovery and prosperity phases of the K-wave cycle, while in the downturn phase, the main driver shifts to supply [1] Group 2 - Zhongtai Securities projects that the industry capacity will remain at 1.24 billion tons in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 8 million tons, and an expected capacity utilization rate of 85.0%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The concentration of state-owned steel manufacturers has rapidly increased in recent years, and the effectiveness of supply constraints from policies has improved [1] - If the industry output needs to comply with policy constraints next year, the enhanced execution efficiency of state-owned enterprises could significantly boost industry profitability, representing a potential benefit for the sector [1] Group 3 - As most production capacities reach the end of their depreciation period, profits are expected to further optimize [3] - After a decline in capital expenditures, the cash flow performance of long-cycle enterprises is expected to outperform profit performance, indicating that the value of the steel industry is beginning to emerge [3]