突发调整，什么原因？日历效应提前启动？

Market Overview - On September 23, the A-share market experienced a day of volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.29%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.21% [1][2] - Despite a late rally in the three major indices, over 4,200 stocks in the market declined [2] Market Adjustment Reasons - The recent market decline is attributed to technical demand and profit-taking pressure rather than substantial negative news [3] - Historical patterns indicate that after the last four Federal Reserve rate cuts, the market typically undergoes a downward adjustment before entering a new upward trend, suggesting a similar pattern may be occurring now [3] Analysis from Shenwan Hongyuan - Shenwan Hongyuan's report indicates that the A-share market has not yet escaped a minor adjustment phase, highlighting three main issues: 1. Insufficient cost-performance ratio, with short-term indicators at high levels and the ChiNext's profitability effect relative to the CSI 300 at a low point [4] 2. Expectations have largely been re-anchored, with a return to long, medium, and short-term economic conditions and cost-performance perspectives [5] 3. The structural main line for further index increases remains unclear, with the market returning to a volatile state while waiting for new catalysts [5] Pre-holiday Market Sentiment - As the National Day holiday approaches, there is a noticeable shift towards risk aversion, with investors opting to secure profits [6] - Historical data shows a 60% probability of index declines in the five trading days leading up to the holiday, leading to a tendency for investors to realize gains to avoid uncertainties during the holiday [6] Short-term Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with declining trading volumes and a retreat from previous upward trends [10] - The technology sector is showing signs of differentiation, with recent gains driven by high-level positive news, indicating a lack of incremental capital in the market [10] Long-term Market Outlook - The overall market is expected to remain stable, with no significant downward trends anticipated, supported by long-term fundamentals such as interest rate conditions, policy support, and industry development [11] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the A-share market retains a favorable long-term valuation, particularly outside of a few technology sectors [11]