美联储9月如期降息但内部存在分歧

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and the fourth cut since 2024 [1][2][12] - The decision was supported by 11 out of 12 voting members, indicating a consensus on the need for a rate cut, although there was some internal disagreement regarding the extent of the cut [2][3] - Fed Chairman Powell's statements were characterized as "hawkish," emphasizing the need for risk management and indicating that future rate adjustments would not be made hastily [1][4][6] Group 2 - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in the labor market, with a noted increase in risks to employment, while inflation remains elevated [3][5] - The Fed's economic forecasts showed a divergence among officials regarding future interest rates, with expectations for two more rate cuts this year, but some officials predicting no further cuts [3][4][12] - The labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, with recent data indicating a drop in non-farm payrolls and an increase in the unemployment rate [8][9] Group 3 - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. has shown a slight decline, primarily driven by a decrease in core services inflation, while core goods inflation has increased [7][8] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is seen as a response to the dual pressures of rising inflation and a weakening labor market, with a focus on managing risks associated with these trends [5][9] - The market anticipates further rate cuts in October and December, with expectations for a cautious approach from the Fed moving forward [14][16] Group 4 - The Fed's independence has been a concern amid political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, but Powell has maintained a rational and independent stance [13] - The future trajectory of the Fed's monetary policy will depend heavily on economic data, with a focus on balancing inflation risks against employment risks [14][16] - The outlook for gold prices remains strong in the medium to long term, supported by central bank purchases and a global trend towards de-dollarization, despite short-term pressures from rate cuts [16]