Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that Sunshine Insurance (06963) is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.734 billion, 6.056 billion, and 6.788 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.2%, 5.6%, and 12.1% respectively, with a revised company valuation of 57.3 billion yuan and a target price of 5.35 HKD per share, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1 - The company is projected to have a stable profit growth with a balanced asset-liability performance, and a dividend yield that ranks among the top in the industry. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 45.8% year-on-year to 5.449 billion yuan in 2024, with a 7.8% year-on-year increase to 3.389 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio expected to reach 40.1% in 2024, the highest among listed insurance companies, and a calculated dividend yield of 5.4% as of September 22, ranking second in the industry [2] Group 2 - The company has shown strong resilience and growth in its individual insurance performance, with a year-on-year increase in new business value (NBV) of 44.2% and 43.3% for 2023 and 2024 respectively, and a 47.3% increase to 4.008 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, leading the industry [3] - The bancassurance channel remains a traditional strength for the company, benefiting significantly from the "reporting and operation integration," with channel NBV growth of 43.6% and 53.0% for 2024 and the first half of 2025, contributing 60% of the total NBV [3] Group 3 - The company has seen a significant decline in liability costs, with a high proportion of new liabilities, and is expected to optimize the cost of existing liabilities. The NBV to effective business value ratio is projected to be 12.79% in 2024, ranking third among listed insurance companies [4] - The net investment yield and the difference between NBV and VIF yield are expected to improve, with year-on-year increases of 100 basis points and 31 basis points respectively, indicating a favorable trend in interest margins [4] - The company has increased its equity allocation in the secondary market, with a stock allocation ratio of 15.1% as of June, and a significant portion of FVOCI stocks exceeding 70%, indicating a stable performance compared to peers [4]
申万宏源:维持阳光保险“买入”评级 目标价5.35港元