程强：金银价格再创新高

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline with a V-shaped trend, while the bond market corrected and precious metals continued to rise to new highs [1] Market Analysis Stock Market - The A-share market showed a "divergent fluctuation, tail-end repair" characteristic, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index closing down by 0.18% and 0.29% respectively, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.21% [2] - The market saw a total trading volume of 2.52 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in trading activity [2] - The technology sector remained a focal point, with semiconductor equipment and banking sectors leading gains, while tourism and consumer services faced significant adjustments [2] - The afternoon rebound was driven by technology stocks, particularly in sectors like photolithography machines and storage chips, reflecting investor confidence in the technology direction [2] Bond Market - The bond market experienced a collective adjustment, with long-term bonds showing greater weakness; the 30-year Treasury futures contract fell by 0.67%, reaching a new low since April [6] - The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose by 1.05 basis points to 1.7980%, while the 30-year yield increased by 1.6 basis points to 2.0990% [7] - The overall funding environment remained tight, with the central bank conducting a 276.1 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, leading to a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan [7] Commodity Market - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, reached new historical highs, with gold prices rising by 1.99% and silver by 1.78% [8] - The overall commodity market saw a decline, with the South China Commodity Index dropping by 1.09%, while agricultural and energy products performed poorly [8] - The long-term trend for precious metals is expected to remain upward due to support from U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risks [8] Trading Hotspots Recent Hot Products - Gold: Supported by central bank purchases and Fed rate cuts [12] - Artificial Intelligence: Accelerated capital expenditure by global tech giants [12] - Domestic Chips: Significant potential for domestic substitution due to technological breakthroughs [12] - Robotics: Accelerating industrialization trends [12] - Consumer Goods: Benefiting from RMB appreciation and market style shifts [12] Core Thoughts Summary - The market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, with a potential shift from "technology-led" to "balanced allocation" [13] - The technology sector's strong logic sub-sectors are anticipated to perform well, while dividend stocks will also highlight their allocation value [13] - In the commodity sector, precious metals and non-ferrous metals are likely to see smoother price increases due to global liquidity [13]