贷款利息已创新低！中国LPR却按兵不动，真相竟是银行扛不住？

Core Viewpoint - The LPR in China has remained unchanged for four consecutive months despite global interest rate cuts, primarily due to constraints from bank interest margins and deposit rates [1][22]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The 1-year and 5-year LPR rates have been stable at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively since May 2025, despite expectations for a decrease following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts [1][22]. - The Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut since December 2024 on September 18, 2025, leading to speculation about similar actions in China [1][22]. Group 2: Bank Profitability Constraints - As of the second quarter of 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks in China has decreased to 1.42%, down 10 basis points from the previous quarter, limiting banks' profitability [4][6]. - The decline in loan interest rates, coupled with limited room for further reductions in deposit rates, has resulted in shrinking interest margins for banks [4][12]. Group 3: Deposit Rate Limitations - Major commercial banks have reduced their deposit rates significantly, with current account rates at 0.05% and one-year fixed deposit rates below 1% [8][9]. - The potential for further reductions in deposit rates is limited, as excessively low rates could lead to a loss of deposits to alternative financial products [12][13]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Considerations - The LPR's pricing mechanism is tied to the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has remained unchanged at 1.40%, making it difficult for the LPR to decrease [15]. - China's monetary policy is expected to remain cautious, balancing internal economic conditions with external pressures, and any future adjustments to the LPR will be gradual [17][22]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while there may be room for LPR adjustments, significant decreases are unlikely, with a focus on maintaining stability in growth, interest margins, and employment [20][22]. - The possibility of a reserve requirement ratio cut is anticipated, which could lower banks' funding costs and create conditions for a potential LPR decrease [18][20].