先涨价再返补贴：国补的迷局与博弈

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the complexities and implications of the "National Subsidy" program aimed at stimulating consumer spending through a "trade-in" model for durable goods, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors [1][2][15] - The subsidy program is designed to support the manufacturing sector by providing financial incentives for consumers to replace old products with new ones, thereby stabilizing production and employment in key industries [2][17] - The funding for the subsidy program is sourced from long-term special government bonds, with a planned allocation of approximately 300 billion yuan for 2025, distributed in batches throughout the year [2][4] Group 2 - The execution of the subsidy program reveals a central-local government dynamic, where the central government covers 90% of the funding while local governments contribute 10%, leading to disparities in implementation across different regions [2][9] - The program has faced challenges such as bureaucratic hurdles and regional funding shortages, which have resulted in difficulties for consumers in accessing the subsidies [1][4] - The focus on durable goods like automobiles and home appliances, rather than services, indicates a supply-side preference in China's economic policy, aiming to boost manufacturing rather than directly stimulate consumer spending [11][15] Group 3 - The articles highlight the significant impact of the subsidy program on automotive sales, with over 7.3 million vehicles traded in under the program, leading to substantial financial outlays for subsidies [13][14] - Comparatively, the subsidy for digital products like smartphones is much lower, reflecting a strategic choice to prioritize sectors with more robust domestic supply chains [13][14] - The program's design has resulted in a short-term boost in sales but raises concerns about long-term sustainability and the potential for demand to be artificially inflated [14][18]