4元1杯的雪王柠檬水断货，其他茶饮凭啥躲过一劫？

Core Viewpoint - The recent shortage of lemon water at Mixue Ice City highlights significant risks within the industry, primarily due to rising lemon prices and supply chain vulnerabilities [1][5][11]. Group 1: Supply Chain and Pricing Issues - The average wholesale price of lemons in China has nearly doubled compared to the same period last year, reaching 15 RMB per kilogram as of September 17, 2025 [3]. - Mixue Ice City sells over 1 billion cups of its lemon water annually, generating approximately 4 billion RMB in sales, which constitutes 13% of the company's revenue for the first half of 2025 [5]. - The company has invested in its supply chain by controlling over 50% of high-quality fresh fruit resources in key lemon-producing areas, but this concentration has amplified risks when faced with climate disasters and global supply chain disruptions [8][11]. Group 2: Climate Impact and Global Supply Chain - Major lemon-producing regions in China, particularly Sichuan and Chongqing, have faced severe droughts and high temperatures, leading to expected reductions in lemon supply by 50-60% [8]. - Global supply chain issues, including adverse weather in other lemon-producing countries, are projected to decrease global lemon supply by 6% [8][10]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Risk Management - Other tea brands have successfully mitigated the lemon crisis by diversifying their sourcing strategies and using alternative lemon varieties that are less affected by climate issues [15]. - Brands like Starbucks and CoCo utilize a global sourcing model to minimize risks associated with local supply disruptions, while Mixue's low-price strategy has constrained its ability to pass on rising costs to consumers [15][19]. - The crisis underscores the vulnerability of Mixue's concentrated capital model, contrasting with competitors who have adopted more resilient supply chain strategies [20].