Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains a "outperforming the industry" rating for Mixue Group (02097) with a target price of HKD 555, corresponding to a P/E of 32/28x for 25/26, indicating a potential upside of 35% [1] Group 1: Integrated Supply Chain Capability - The company is enhancing its integrated supply chain capabilities, consolidating quality-price ratio and scale flywheel effects [1] - On the procurement side, the company is globally sourcing and collaborating deeply with major suppliers, reducing costs through scale effects, with planned purchases of 11.5k tons of lemons, 2.7k tons of fresh oranges, 6.1k tons of tea leaves, and 1.3k tons of coffee beans in 2024 [1] - The company is improving factory automation to optimize product taste and has established 29 domestic warehouses, along with localized storage systems in Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia, achieving over 90% coverage of county-level administrative regions in mainland China within 12 hours [1] - The company has developed an intelligent dispensing machine to enhance store operational efficiency, reducing service time from over 20 seconds to 8-10 seconds, with 4,000-5,000 units currently deployed [1] Group 2: Impact of Delivery Subsidies - The company estimates that delivery subsidies contributed to a 13% year-on-year same-store sales growth in H1, with delivery revenue share increasing by approximately 10 percentage points [2] - Considering the gradual weakening of delivery subsidies since July, the company anticipates a decline in same-store revenue growth in H2 compared to Q2 [2] - The company is expected to counter the impact of declining delivery subsidies through product innovation, offline marketing, and mini-program traffic [2] Group 3: Potential of Lucky Coffee and Overseas Adjustments - Lucky Coffee is leveraging Mixue's supply chain advantages to enhance fruit and coffee product innovation, with coffee product revenue accounting for over half of total revenue, and same-store growth expected to exceed the overall company growth of 13% in H1 [3] - The company has signed over 8,000 new stores nationwide as of August 27, with expectations to reach around 8,000 operational stores by year-end [3] - The overseas market is still in an adjustment phase, with higher gross margins compared to domestic operations, allowing the company to provide discounts while ensuring franchisee profitability remains within a reasonable range [3]
中金：维持蜜雪集团(02097)“跑赢行业”评级 目标价555港元