宏观和产业驱动向下 油价弱势不改

Group 1 - The international oil market is showing signs of downward pressure from both macroeconomic and industry factors, with weak oil demand and increased production from oil-producing countries leading to high inventory risks [1][2] - Since the beginning of 2024, international crude oil prices have been in a weak oscillating trend, fluctuating between $65 and $85 per barrel, influenced by the end of the Fed's rate hike cycle and relatively stable geopolitical conditions in Europe and the Middle East [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, oil prices are expected to adjust weakly, with a mainstream focus level of $55 to $65 per barrel, primarily due to the Fed's initial rate cut phase and concerns over economic downturn and weakened oil demand [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ countries are gradually increasing production to capture more market share, with a total of 2.2 million barrels per day already released and an additional 1.65 million barrels per day being released, amidst limited demand growth and the increasing impact of renewable energy [2] - The combination of weak macroeconomic conditions and strong expectations for inventory accumulation suggests that crude oil prices are likely to undergo a weak adjustment phase, although geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East could lead to short-term price spikes [2]