中美若硬脱钩，全球蒸发7.4万亿美元？赢家浮出水面，中国留后手

Group 1 - The IMF report indicates that a complete economic decoupling between China and the US could reduce global GDP by 7%, amounting to a loss of $7.4 trillion, equivalent to the combined economic output of France and Germany [2][5] - The ongoing trade tensions have evolved beyond trade disputes, now impacting technology and supply chains, leading to a downward revision of global growth expectations from 3.3% to 2.8% [4] - Emerging economies are rising in this geopolitical landscape, with Malaysia attracting $13.5 billion in foreign investment for semiconductor facilities in 2023, surpassing the total from 2013 to 2020 [7] Group 2 - Vietnam has significantly increased its exports to the US from $50 billion in 2017 to over $100 billion in 2023, with an expected economic growth rate of 5.3% by 2025, benefiting from regional trade agreements [9] - Hungary is also benefiting from Chinese investments in electric vehicle production, with an expected economic growth of 2.4% by 2025, reflecting a shift from fossil fuel dependency to electric transformation [11] - The International Bank for Settlements reports that Western companies are facing increased supply chain costs and inefficiencies due to adjustments, while emerging economies are leveraging low costs and policy flexibility for higher growth rates [13] Group 3 - China is diversifying its market strategies, with exports to ASEAN expected to surpass those to the US in 2024, indicating a significant shift in trade partnerships [15] - The self-sufficiency rate of China's semiconductor industry is projected to rise from 20% in 2018 to over 50% by 2025, showcasing a strategic response to external pressures [17] - The Belt and Road Initiative is expanding from infrastructure to digital and green sectors, with investments in over 80 countries by 2025, promoting high-tech cooperation [18] Group 4 - Global debt has reached $100 trillion, accounting for 93% of GDP, with the IMF projecting a global growth reduction of 0.2% to 7% due to US-China competition [20] - Currently, the US and China have extended a tariff truce for 90 days, with ongoing negotiations, while China's foreign trade is growing at 5.4%, benefiting emerging markets [22]