彻底丢掉最大出口市场，美国豆农被关税推向绝境

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean industry is facing severe challenges due to the Trump administration's tariff policies, which have resulted in the loss of the Chinese market, a critical buyer for U.S. soybeans [2] - The American Soybean Association has reported that since the fall harvest began, China, the largest buyer, has not placed any orders, highlighting the urgency of the situation for U.S. farmers [2] - The agricultural sector is experiencing financial strain due to rising production costs and declining soybean prices, which have dropped approximately 40% from the historical highs of 2022 [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts a record soybean production of 4.3 billion bushels this year, but prices are significantly lower compared to previous years [3] - The soybean supply chain, which includes fertilizers, machinery, storage, transportation, finance, and ports, is at risk, threatening related employment [3] - Agricultural loan rates in the U.S. are at a ten-year high, with agricultural debt expected to rise to nearly $562 billion by 2025, increasing the risk of defaults in the Midwest [3] Group 2: Trade Relations - China accounts for approximately 60% of global soybean imports, and prior to 2018, the U.S. exported an average of 28% of its soybeans to China [4] - In the 2023-2024 fiscal year, U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to be nearly 25 million tons, significantly higher than the 4.9 million tons exported to the European Union [4] - Brazil has overtaken the U.S. as China's largest soybean supplier, with Brazilian exports to China increasing by over 280% since 2010 [4] Group 3: Political Implications - Farmers in agricultural states that previously supported Trump are now expressing dissatisfaction due to the financial impact of tariffs, which could influence the upcoming 2026 midterm elections [3] - The American Soybean Association has consistently urged the government to prioritize soybean issues in trade negotiations with China to prevent further market share loss to countries like Brazil [2]