专访许小峰：极端天气的突发性和高强度将成为常态｜首席气候官

Core Insights - The article discusses the unusual climate phenomena in North China this year, characterized by an early and prolonged rainy season, extreme rainfall, and persistent high temperatures, raising concerns about urban safety, energy stability, and climate adaptability [1][2]. Climate Anomalies - This year's rainy season in North China started over 10 days earlier than usual, with record rainfall and temperatures, indicating a significant deviation from historical patterns [2][4]. - The simultaneous occurrence of extreme rainfall and high temperatures is attributed to the abnormal activity of the subtropical high-pressure system, which has disrupted the typical seasonal weather patterns [2][3]. Regional Climate Dynamics - The subtropical high-pressure system has caused a climate differentiation within the North China region, leading to high temperatures in areas under its influence while simultaneously allowing for extreme rainfall in surrounding areas [3][4]. - The stability of the subtropical high-pressure system has resulted in sustained moisture transport to North China, extending the rainy days and increasing cumulative rainfall, which can lead to severe disasters in localized areas [3]. Future Climate Trends - The early onset of the rainy season is considered a rare anomaly and not indicative of a long-term trend, although the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are expected to become the new norm due to increasing atmospheric volatility [4][9]. - The article highlights the need for vigilance regarding climate change, as the probability of extreme weather occurrences is likely to rise, necessitating improved disaster preparedness and response strategies [4][9]. Disaster Preparedness in Rural Areas - Rural and mountainous areas face greater threats from extreme weather compared to plains, with rapid rainfall accumulation leading to flash floods, particularly in regions with inadequate disaster preparedness [5][7]. - Recommendations for improving disaster response include enhancing early warning systems, optimizing spatial planning to relocate vulnerable structures, and conducting risk drills to raise public awareness [5][7]. Meteorological Challenges - The article identifies challenges in predicting large-scale climate anomalies and monitoring extreme rainfall in mountainous regions, emphasizing the need for advancements in short-term forecasting technologies [6][10]. - The difficulty in accurately predicting extreme weather events poses significant risks, particularly in areas where rapid flooding can occur within hours [6][10]. Regional Disparities in Disaster Response - There are notable differences in disaster preparedness between northern and southern regions of China, with the south having more established mechanisms for dealing with heavy rainfall and flash floods [7][8]. - Northern regions, with lower vegetation cover and soil moisture retention, are more susceptible to severe impacts from similar rainfall events, highlighting the need for enhanced awareness and preparedness in these areas [7][8]. Climate Change and Energy Security - The article discusses the implications of rising global temperatures, with predictions that 2025 may be among the warmest years on record, raising concerns about meeting climate targets set by the Paris Agreement [8][9]. - The increasing volatility of renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, poses challenges for energy security, necessitating technological solutions to address their inherent instability [9][10]. Urban Climate Resilience - Urban planning must incorporate climate resilience strategies to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather, with a focus on improving drainage systems and urban layouts to prevent flooding and heat island effects [10][11]. - Investment in rural disaster preparedness is prioritized, as rural areas are more vulnerable to extreme weather events, requiring immediate attention to enhance safety and resilience [11].