IC外汇平台：流动性拐点将至？从联邦基金利率观察美联储的下一步

Group 1 - The effective federal funds rate has slightly increased to 4.09%, indicating a potential shift in the liquidity environment as it remains within the Federal Reserve's target range of 4% to 4.25% [1][4] - There is a notable consumption of excess reserves in the banking system, particularly with foreign financial institutions withdrawing funds, which suggests a diminishing market buffer and increased volatility in funding prices [1][4] - The recent rise in the effective rate is interpreted as an early signal of "stress testing," reflecting a higher sensitivity in the short-term market and necessitating attention from the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 2 - The participation landscape in the federal funds market has shifted, with commercial banks opting to deposit funds directly with the Federal Reserve, leading to a concentration of trading among Federal Home Loan Banks and some foreign financial institutions [4] - Data indicates a continuous decrease in commercial banks' deposits at the Federal Reserve, alongside a significant decline in liquidity for foreign banks, highlighting a gradual reduction in marginal liquidity [4] - The demand for reverse repurchase agreements, which serve as a reservoir for excess funds, has fallen to a four-year low, further emphasizing the diminishing marginal liquidity [4]