dbg盾博：鲍威尔最新演讲为降息留余地，警示高估值与市场脆弱性

Group 1 - The core message of Powell's speech emphasizes the dual risks of rising inflation and declining employment, indicating that the policy rate remains moderately restrictive, allowing for potential further rate cuts within the year [3][4] - The labor market is showing significant weakness, with an average monthly job growth of only 29,000 over the past three months, which is well below the level needed to maintain the unemployment rate [3] - Inflation concerns persist, with the core PCE inflation rate at 2.9% year-over-year in August, higher than the previous year's 2.3%, and tariffs are expected to cause a temporary price level increase [3][4] Group 2 - Financial stability risks are currently low, with healthy bank capital and household balance sheets; however, stock valuations are considered high, which may lead to tighter financial conditions [5] - Powell indirectly addressed political pressures on the Federal Reserve, asserting that monetary policy decisions will not be influenced by partisan politics [5] - The uncertainty surrounding public policies, including fiscal and regulatory factors, is contributing to hiring slowdowns, particularly affecting younger workers [5][6] Group 3 - Market interpretations suggest that Powell's remarks create a pathway for potential rate cuts in Q4, with a likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in November or December if labor market weakness continues [6] - The current policy rate is described as moderately restrictive, with future decisions dependent on data; if employment continues to weaken, further rate cuts may occur despite slightly elevated core inflation [6]