关税“大山压顶” 日系“小而美”“美”不起来

Core Viewpoint - The reduction of U.S. import tariffs on Japanese cars from 27.5% to 15% is expected to alleviate some pressure on Japanese automakers, but the remaining tariff still poses significant challenges for smaller manufacturers like Mazda, Subaru, and Mitsubishi, which rely heavily on imports and have limited risk-bearing capacity [2][9]. Group 1: Impact of Tariff Changes - The new 15% tariff applies to Japanese passenger cars, light trucks, and auto parts, which still burdens smaller Japanese automakers [2]. - Despite the tariff reduction, the impact on smaller companies is severe, as they must raise prices in the U.S. market to survive, potentially erasing their profits [2][9]. Group 2: Sales Performance in the U.S. - Mazda's U.S. sales are projected to grow by 16.8% in 2024, reaching 424,000 units, with the U.S. market accounting for nearly 30% of its global sales [3]. - Subaru's U.S. sales are expected to reach 660,000 units in 2024, a 5.6% increase, with 70% of its global sales coming from the U.S. market [3]. - Mitsubishi anticipates U.S. sales of approximately 110,000 units in 2024, marking a 26% increase and the best sales record since 2019 [4]. Group 3: Market Strategies and Adaptations - Mazda plans to increase its market share in the U.S. to 450,000 units by 2025 and is actively developing new energy technologies [3]. - Subaru's success in the U.S. is attributed to its alignment with consumer demands for reliability and safety, particularly in winter conditions [3]. - Mitsubishi is set to introduce hybrid models in the U.S. and plans to expand its vehicle lineup from 4 to 8 models by the 2030 fiscal year [4]. Group 4: Cost Management and Production Adjustments - Japanese automakers are implementing cost-cutting measures and enhancing collaboration to increase local production capacity in the U.S. [11]. - Mazda is focusing on increasing efficiency at its Alabama plant and shifting production towards higher-margin models [11][12]. - Subaru is investing 40 billion yen to expand production in the U.S. and is transitioning some production to local facilities to reduce import reliance [11][12]. Group 5: Financial Outlook and Profitability - Japanese automakers expect a significant drop in profits due to tariffs, with Mazda forecasting an 82.5% decrease in net profit for the 2025 fiscal year [9]. - Subaru anticipates a 52.7% decline in net profit for the 2025 fiscal year, while Mitsubishi has lowered its profit forecast by 30% [10][11]. - The overall impact of tariffs is expected to reduce the combined operating profit of Japan's seven major automakers by approximately 2.67 trillion yen for the 2025 fiscal year [9].