美股牛市真要回来了？市场低估了美股盈利走高的可能性？

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the market has underestimated the profit potential of U.S. stocks, suggesting that the recession has ended and an early recovery is underway, indicating the start of a new bull market [2][4]. Economic Recovery - Morgan Stanley asserts that the rolling recession has concluded, and the U.S. economy is beginning to recover, with a 35% increase in the breadth of earnings revisions, a phenomenon typically seen at the end of a recession and during early recovery [4]. - The median EPS of the Russell 3000 index has turned positive at +6%, indicating a significant recovery in earnings [4]. - The ratio of cyclical stocks (manufacturing, industrials, consumer) to defensive stocks (pharmaceuticals, consumer staples) has increased by 50% from its low, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [4]. Factors Driving Recovery - The early recovery is supported by three main factors: a slowdown in wage growth rather than mass layoffs, the release of pent-up demand across various sectors, and recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut in September is seen as a precursor to a more accommodative monetary environment [8]. Inflation and Corporate Earnings - Morgan Stanley posits that by 2026, the Federal Reserve may adopt a more lenient stance on inflation, allowing for some price increases without hindering corporate profitability [11]. - Historical data indicates that the Producer Price Index (PPI) often leads S&P 500 sales growth by four months, suggesting that inflation could act as a stimulant for corporate earnings rather than a detriment [11]. Investment Indicators - Investors are advised to monitor several key indicators, including bond market volatility and the spread between SOFR and the federal funds rate, as these can signal potential market movements [13]. - The performance of small-cap stocks is highlighted, with the caveat that they tend to outperform only when the Federal Reserve is ahead of the market, indicating a need for patience as the current gap is still 65 basis points [13]. Conclusion - Morgan Stanley presents an optimistic outlook with the narrative of an ended recession, early recovery, and supportive factors such as wage moderation, demand rebound, and interest rate cuts, framing a potential continuation of the bull market [15].