债市回调趋势未见扭转 市场观望公募费率新规影响

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently undergoing an adjustment phase, with a notable shift in market logic compared to the previous year, leading to increased sensitivity to negative factors despite a lack of clear negative signals [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The yield on the 10-year government bond has risen from 1.7850% on September 22 to around 1.8%, indicating a narrow fluctuation around this key level [1]. - The overall market is in a restructuring phase, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect diminishing, leading to a decreased correlation between bond and equity asset movements [1][4]. - Recent trading days have seen a slight increase in yields for both 10-year and 30-year government bonds, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 1.8190% and the 30-year bond at 2.1190% [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Domestic economic expectations are gradually stabilizing, while the peak of the "reciprocal tariff" rates in April has contributed to a more favorable investment outlook [1][3]. - The People's Bank of China has maintained a stable funding environment, with recent reverse repo operations indicating a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan, despite slight increases in funding rates [2][3]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The new fund fee regulations released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 5 have raised concerns among market participants, particularly regarding the impact on bond fund redemption fees [4][6]. - The new regulations encourage long-term holding, which has led to a decrease in the profitability of short-term bond funds, affecting market sentiment and trading behavior [4][6]. Group 4: Institutional Behavior - Recent data shows that funds remain the largest sellers in the bond market, while insurance institutions and banks are taking on the role of primary buyers [5][6]. - The market is experiencing a shift in trading dynamics, with large banks increasing their holdings of short-term government bonds, while the buying power of agricultural and commercial banks and insurance companies has weakened [6][8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain high volatility, with potential adjustments in yields, but significant upward movement beyond previous highs is unlikely [7][8]. - Key factors to watch include the potential for interest rate cuts, the limited influx of new funds, and seasonal influences that may affect bond supply and demand dynamics in the fourth quarter [8].