“可以继续享受AI牛市”，但野村警告：现在不能放弃对冲

Core Viewpoint - The current AI-driven bull market in the U.S. stock market is solid, but significant downside risks have accumulated, making it dangerous to abandon hedging strategies [1][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing an "AI-induced frenzy," creating a positive feedback loop that drives indices to new historical highs, forcing previously skeptical investors to buy in [1]. - There is a sharp decline in the skew of the options market, with a significant increase in demand for call options relative to put options, indicating strong bullish sentiment [3][11]. - Systematic capital flows are preparing for "asymmetric selling," increasing the market's vulnerability to corrections [3]. Group 2: Support for the Bull Market - Multiple factors support the current bull market, including a shift in the Federal Reserve's focus from combating inflation to monitoring the labor market, providing a dovish outlook [5]. - Ongoing fiscal stimulus and large-scale deficit spending in the U.S. and globally continue to bolster the market [5]. - High-income consumers in the U.S. are driving consumption, supported by a loose financial environment characterized by a weak dollar and narrow corporate credit spreads [5]. Group 3: Concerns and Risks - There are unsettling signs in the market, such as a dangerous cycle of "AI revenue/capital expenditure" among tech giants, reminiscent of the late internet bubble [7]. - The current market structure has become extremely fragile, with significant long gamma exposure accumulated by market makers, suppressing short-term volatility [12]. - Investors are increasing leverage and chasing high-beta, high-volatility stocks, despite potential risks [9]. Group 4: Importance of Hedging - The warning from analysts emphasizes that maintaining hedging strategies is crucial due to the extreme positioning in the market and potential downside convexity [15]. - The combined rebalancing of options and leveraged ETF markets indicates a significant liquidity risk due to a near 2:1 ratio of potential selling pressure to buying demand [17].