化债周年倒计时：精准释放地方债资金效能，助力财政政策更加积极

Core Viewpoint - Local government debt is a crucial tool for macroeconomic stability in China, with significant growth and expansion in its scope over the past five years, increasing from approximately 25 trillion yuan at the end of 2020 to nearly 50 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [3][4] Group 1: Local Government Debt Growth - The scale of local government debt has doubled, with annual new debt limits reaching record highs, effectively bridging local fiscal gaps [3] - The areas of investment for special bonds have expanded from seven key sectors in 2020 to a comprehensive negative list management approach, providing flexible support for local development [3] Group 2: Debt Risk Management - The government is increasing support for resolving local government debt risks, with new policies being the most significant measures in recent years [4] - A resolution was passed to approve the increase of local government debt limits to replace hidden debts, marking the official start of debt resolution efforts [4] Group 3: Economic Transition and Debt Management - The transition from debt-driven investment to technology and consumption-driven growth is ongoing, with recommendations to optimize debt resolution methods and increase debt limits [4][6] - The relationship between debt growth and economic growth must be dynamically managed to ensure sustainable development [6] Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Local Debt - Local debt plays a vital role in making fiscal policy more proactive, especially in the current economic climate [5] - There is a need for a balanced approach to ensure that debt scales align with economic growth and fiscal capacity, avoiding disorderly expansion [7] Group 5: Performance Evaluation and Efficiency - A dual-dimensional performance evaluation system should be established to assess both economic and social benefits of debt-funded projects [8] - Ensuring the effective and efficient use of debt funds is crucial for improving investment returns [8] Group 6: Central Government's Role - The central government has room to increase leverage to alleviate local government debt pressure and enhance debt sustainability [9] - Special bonds should be managed through a negative list approach, with exploration of positive encouragement lists to broaden investment areas [9] Group 7: Future Fiscal Strategy - The fiscal policy for the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" should be more proactive, with suggestions to increase the deficit rate to around 5% and a broad deficit scale of 16 trillion yuan [11] - Local debt should align with national strategic goals to support high-quality economic development, focusing on key projects and emerging industries [12]