写给新老基民：“9·24”一周年之际的复盘与思考

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced significant changes since September 24, 2024, marking a new cycle characterized by a strong recovery and confidence in the domestic technology sector [1][12]. Market Review - The market can be divided into three phases since September 24, 2024: 1. From September 24 to October 8, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index surged from around 2700 points to 3674 points, an increase of nearly 1000 points [4]. 2. From October 8, 2024, to April 7, 2025, the market experienced fluctuations, testing investor confidence while hovering above 3000 points [6]. 3. From April 7, 2025, to the present, the market has seen a steady rise of nearly 900 points, moving from 3040 points to nearly 3900 points, indicating a "slow bull" market [6][12]. Market Dynamics - The overall market valuation has shifted from excessive pessimism to reasonable correction, with the technology growth sector gaining optimistic expectations [12]. - The annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index has decreased to 15.9% over the past five years, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous five years, indicating a more stable investment environment [5][12]. Investment Trends - The technology sector has emerged as the strongest driver of the current market rally, with its market capitalization exceeding 25% of the total market [9][12]. - The ChiNext Index and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index have both seen significant gains, reflecting the success of the new policies introduced since September 24, 2024 [9][12]. Future Outlook - Historical analysis suggests that the CSI 300 Index could reach around 5500 points, indicating a potential upside of 22% from its current level of approximately 4500 points [18]. - The current dividend yield of the CSI 300 is 2.2%, suggesting a potential increase of 46% based on historical bull market dividend yields [21]. Investor Sentiment - Recent data indicates that while there has been an increase in retail investor activity, it remains below the levels seen during the previous bull market [13][15]. - The market sentiment has shown signs of improvement, but it is still not at the levels experienced during the peak of previous bull markets [13][15].