研究显示：中国收入最高群体为35岁组，未来十年可能逐渐后移

Core Viewpoint - The "golden age" of income for Chinese residents has shifted significantly from the age of 55 in the 1990s to 35 in 2010, contrasting with the stable age of around 50 in the United States, reflecting profound changes in human capital structure and income distribution in China [2][3]. Group 1: Changes in Human Capital - The shift in the income age curve is primarily attributed to substantial intergenerational differences in human capital among the labor force [3]. - The younger workforce entering the labor market has a significantly higher initial human capital due to rapid educational improvements since the reform and opening-up period [3][4]. - Data shows that since 1985, actual wages for male laborers across all age groups in China have increased significantly, with the younger demographic experiencing faster growth, thereby advancing the "golden age" [3][5]. Group 2: Institutional Benefits and Time Effects - The rapid growth of human capital returns in China post-1985 has outpaced that of the United States, which has seen a growth rate of only about 1% during the same period [5]. - Institutional reforms such as state-owned enterprise reform, WTO accession, and labor mobility have unleashed significant market vitality, leading to a substantial increase in human capital returns [5]. Group 3: Future Projections - A counterfactual simulation suggests that if the growth rates of birth group effects and time effects slow down over the next 30 years while experience effects remain constant, the income golden age in China could rise to 45-50 years by 2035, approaching current U.S. levels [6]. - This potential shift may bring both positive impacts, such as a resurgence in the value of experienced workers, and increased employment pressure on the middle-aged demographic [6].