Goldman Warns: Enjoy The Market Calm While It Lasts—October Chaos Is Coming

Market Performance - The S&P 500 is up 3.6% in September, on track for its best performance since 2010, when it rose 8.76% [2] - The Nasdaq 100 has increased by 5.5%, while the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund has surged 7.5%, marking its second-strongest September since its inception in 1999 [3] Tech Sector Dynamics - Tech stocks have historically averaged a 2.2% loss in September over the past 25 years, but this year, companies like Oracle, Tesla, Micron, and Apple have driven a momentum surge due to AI demand and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][5] Future Volatility Expectations - Goldman Sachs anticipates increased global equity volatility in October, with realized volatility historically over 25% higher than in other months [6] - October earnings season is expected to be particularly volatile, influenced by FOMC meetings, Fed commentary, and the Consumer Price Index report [7] Trading Activity Insights - Historically, single stock trading volumes, both in shares and options, peak in October, indicating that investors often feel compelled to act during this month [8]