科沃斯(603486)：如何看待科沃斯未来潜力空间

Core Viewpoint - The company has reached a performance bottom in 2023, with a turning point expected in the first half of 2024-2025, highlighting future potential through product cycles, globalization, platformization, and supply chain advantages [1] Group 1: Globalization Space - The industry is entering a new penetration cycle, with the company holding a significant first-mover advantage and a comprehensive strategy, leading to a 73% market share in online drum retail by the first half of 2025, with further growth expected in Q3 [2] - Future growth drivers include penetration growth against national subsidy baselines and international expansion, with potential revenue catch-up of 5 billion yuan annually from overseas contributions of brands like Ecovacs and Roborock [2] - The overseas average price is significantly higher, indicating potential for margin improvement as the company expands its international footprint [2] Group 2: Platformization Space - The company's third growth curve has transitioned from early losses to profitability, with platformization enhancing growth certainty [3] - Preliminary estimates suggest that the third growth curve, focusing on consumer-grade robots like lawn mowers and window cleaners, could generate over 5 billion yuan in profit and a scale of over 50 billion yuan in the long term [3] Group 3: Supply Chain Space - The company's robotics industry chain has been successfully incubated over a decade, with strategic investments in over 100 technology companies since 2016, providing future growth options [4] - Potential outcomes include new high-quality projects contributing directly to performance and expanded collaboration opportunities through investment empowerment and cost reduction [4] Conclusion - Revenue projections for the company are 19 billion, 22.9 billion, and 25.7 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 16%, and 12% respectively, and net profits of 2.1 billion, 2.6 billion, and 3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 155%, 27%, and 16% [4] - The company is expected to achieve a profit of 2.5 billion yuan from floor and drum cleaning machines and an additional 500 million yuan from the third growth curve by 2027, supported by the robotics industry chain providing further growth options [4]