“反内卷”浪潮后，风电行业开启盈利复苏周期

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley upgrades the rating of China's wind power industry, anticipating a recovery in the sector following efforts to combat internal competition [1] Group 1: Industry Recovery - The Chinese wind power value chain has successfully achieved a turnaround through industry self-discipline after nearly three years of decline, with a projected shift in pricing and overall profitability by early 2025 [1] - The domestic wind power installation demand is expected to remain resilient, with investment opportunities seen in key component suppliers and submarine cable companies [1] Group 2: Demand and Pricing Trends - Strong demand growth is evident, with annual new installations increasing from 48 GW in 2021 and 38 GW in 2022 to 76 GW, 79 GW, and 54 GW in 2023, 2024, and the first seven months of 2025, respectively [2] - The average bidding price for onshore wind turbines increased by 8% and for offshore wind turbines by 12% in the first eight months before 2025 compared to 2024 [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, annual new installations are expected to exceed 110 GW, potentially reaching around 120 GW between 2028 and 2030 [3] - The introduction of favorable policies, such as Document No. 136, is expected to enhance the investment attractiveness of wind power compared to solar energy [3] - Offshore wind power installations are anticipated to accelerate, with key regions like Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu expected to expedite project bidding and construction [3]