标普500连续107日未跌超2%，一场回调或在酝酿？

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has shown remarkable resilience in the face of challenges such as trade tensions, economic slowdown, and valuation concerns, achieving record highs and maintaining a long streak without significant declines [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has not experienced a 2% drop since April, marking the longest streak since July 2024, with a cumulative increase of 34% and a market capitalization rise of nearly $16 trillion [1][4]. - The index has reached 28 all-time highs this year, despite rising unemployment rates and inflation concerns [4][5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are optimistic about potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of a 50 basis point reduction by 2025 being largely priced in [5][6]. - Recent fund inflows into the U.S. stock market reached nearly $58 billion in a single week, the largest weekly inflow of the year [6]. Group 3: Short Selling and Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index has defied the historical trend of poor performance in September, driven by short covering, with the most shorted stocks rising 14% this month [7][8]. - The relative strength index (RSI) for the most shorted stocks has reached its highest level since early 2021, indicating potential overbought conditions [7][8]. Group 4: Volatility and Risk Indicators - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is significantly below its ten-year average, suggesting low investor fear and complacency [9]. - There is a notable increase in net short positions on the VIX, indicating that investors are betting on continued market calm, which may signal a potential pause in the upward trend [9].