鲍威尔：经济展望（全文）

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that stock market valuations are "quite high," which negatively impacted market sentiment and ended a three-day rally in U.S. stocks [2][10]. Monetary Policy - Powell indicated that the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability faces threats, suggesting that there is no risk-free policy path [2][17]. - The recent decision to lower interest rates was influenced by increased risks to employment, reflecting a shift in risk balance [2][17]. - Powell stated that the current policy stance remains "moderately restrictive," allowing for further rate cuts if labor market weaknesses outweigh inflationary pressures [5][18]. Inflation and Tariffs - Powell reiterated that tariffs are expected to have a temporary impact on inflation, leading to one-time price fluctuations that may last several quarters [3][17]. - He emphasized the need for the Fed to monitor the potential lasting effects of tariffs to prevent them from becoming a persistent inflation issue [3][17]. - Recent data showed inflation rising, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increasing by 2.7% over the past year, above the Fed's 2% target [16][17]. Labor Market - Powell acknowledged that the U.S. labor market can no longer be considered robust, with signs of substantive weakness emerging [8][15]. - The unemployment rate has slightly increased to 4.3%, with job growth significantly slowing down, averaging only 29,000 new jobs per month over the past three months [15][16]. - Despite the slowdown, some labor market indicators, such as the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals, remain stable [16]. Market Reaction - Following Powell's remarks about high stock valuations, major U.S. stock indices turned negative, with the Nasdaq Composite Index dropping nearly 1% [2][10].