【西街观察】美联储降息，黄金成最大赢家

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has triggered a global capital migration, with gold emerging as the biggest winner, reaching historical highs in recent weeks [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices have surged significantly, with spot gold reaching a high of $3,791 per ounce and gold futures surpassing $3,800 per ounce [1]. - Prior to the interest rate cut, spot gold rose from $3,338 per ounce on August 26 to $3,700 per ounce by September 17, marking a continuous upward trend [2]. - Following the rate cut, gold prices continued to rise rather than decline, with a cumulative increase of 44.1% in 2023 and 2024 [2]. Group 2: Changing Perception of Gold Investment - The perception of gold as an investment has shifted from merely a safe haven to a strategic asset for countries aiming to hedge against fluctuations in the global credit system [2]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are increasingly adopting a "de-dollarization" strategy by accumulating gold to mitigate structural risks associated with the dollar [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks have net purchased over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years, a level of intensity not seen in a long time, with this trend expected to continue into 2025 [3]. - The share of gold in international reserves has surpassed that of the euro, making it the second-largest reserve asset after the dollar [3]. - Gold is becoming a new anchor in the global monetary trust system, challenging the foundational role of U.S. Treasury bonds in the modern financial system [3].