市场对美联储10月份降息预期较高

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is facing dual risks of rising inflation and declining employment, complicating monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1] - The rate cut is seen as a preventive measure in response to the deteriorating employment data, which is perceived to pose a greater risk than the moderate rebound in inflation [3] - Market expectations for another rate cut in October are high, with a 91.9% probability of a 25 basis point reduction [3] Group 2: Employment Market - The U.S. job market is showing signs of significant weakening, with the average number of new non-farm jobs added in August at around 30,000, a historical low [2] - The unemployment rate has risen, and job vacancies have decreased, indicating a further decline in the employment market [2] - The dual slowdown in labor supply and demand is increasing the risks associated with employment [3] Group 3: Economic Challenges - The main challenges for the U.S. economy include structural imbalances in the job market and weakness in the manufacturing sector, which may not be effectively addressed through interest rate policies alone [4] - The Fed's risk management strategy aims to buy time for fiscal policies and structural reforms, but reliance solely on gradual monetary policy may not prevent further economic decline [4]