俄罗斯能源大门向美国敞开！中美俄大三角关系再现微妙变化

Core Viewpoint - Russia has extended an olive branch to the U.S. by expressing willingness to discuss energy cooperation, including the potential revival of the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project, amidst complex geopolitical dynamics involving the U.S., Europe, and China [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Cooperation - Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov has publicly stated readiness to discuss energy cooperation with the U.S., and President Putin has signed a decree allowing ExxonMobil to regain a 30% stake in the Sakhalin-1 project, which had been stalled since the Ukraine conflict [3]. - Energy exports account for over 40% of Russia's fiscal revenue, highlighting the critical need for foreign exchange as the country faces economic difficulties, with a projected GDP growth of only 1.5% by 2025 and a second-quarter growth rate of just 1.1% [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Strategy - Russia's move to engage with the U.S. is seen as a strategic maneuver to create divisions within the U.S.-EU alliance, especially as the U.S. pushes for increased tariffs on China while potentially engaging in energy trade with Russia [5]. - The ongoing informal contacts between Russia and the U.S. may be a preparatory step for future relations, particularly if Trump were to return to the White House, which could lead to a thaw in U.S.-Russia relations [7]. Group 3: Implications for Global Energy Market - The U.S. is motivated to engage in energy cooperation with Russia to stabilize global energy markets and mitigate oil price volatility that could impact the U.S. economy, while also increasing its influence over Russia [13]. - The response from the EU will be crucial, as internal divisions may arise regarding acceptance of U.S.-Russia energy cooperation [14]. Group 4: China's Position - China maintains a strategic stance, continuing normal trade relations with Russia, unaffected by the U.S.-Russia rapprochement, and has become Russia's largest energy buyer, with trade expected to exceed $240 billion in 2024 [10]. - The dynamics of U.S.-Russia energy cooperation are unlikely to alter the fundamental strategic triangle involving China, the U.S., and Russia, as long as China continues to strengthen its position [16].