纳斯达克首席经济学家：美利率或降至3.5% 企业盈利支撑美股

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut reflects ongoing challenges in the labor market and inflation, with Chairman Powell indicating a cautious approach to future rate adjustments and expressing concerns over high valuations in the U.S. stock market [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year [1]. - There is speculation about whether this rate cut is a "risk management" adjustment or the beginning of a new easing cycle, with expectations that rates may gradually decline to around 3.5% [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain growth, despite signs of a cooling labor market and inflation remaining below 3%, which is not currently a major concern for the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - The absence of large-scale layoffs and stable consumer spending, along with fiscal stimulus and regulatory easing, support the outlook for continued economic growth, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years [5]. Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - Recent stock market gains are attributed to improved corporate earnings, particularly driven by investments in artificial intelligence, which have lowered financing costs and boosted valuations [2][6]. - The divergence in sentiment between retail investors, who are becoming more cautious, and institutional investors, who focus on fundamentals, highlights the complexity of current market dynamics [7][8]. Group 4: Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence has weakened, with signs of financial strain among lower-income groups, which may affect investment behavior, although overall net inflows into the stock market continue [7][8]. - The ongoing decline in interest rates is expected to lower corporate financing costs and enhance profitability, providing solid support for the market [8].