从“买房致富”到“卖房求生”，一夜之间，房价又给我们开了个天大的玩笑

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with many homeowners facing financial burdens due to falling property values and high mortgage payments [1][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Conditions - As of June 2025, 78 out of 100 major cities in China have seen a decline in new residential prices, with second-hand housing transactions hitting a ten-year low. Average second-hand home prices in first-tier cities have dropped by 12.7% from their peak in 2022, while some third and fourth-tier cities have experienced declines exceeding 20% [3][4]. Contributing Factors - Population Changes: The natural population growth rate in China has fallen to 0.1‰, nearing zero growth, with projections indicating a long-term population decline over the next decade, impacting housing demand [4]. - Urbanization Slowdown: Urbanization rates have increased from 49.68% in 2010 to 66.2% in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed significantly, indicating reduced housing demand from rural migration [4]. - Oversupply: The inventory of unsold properties reached 680 million square meters in the first half of 2025, suggesting a supply-demand imbalance that is driving prices down [4]. - High Leverage: As of Q1 2025, the household debt-to-GDP ratio reached 62.3%, with over 35% of families spending more than 50% of their income on mortgage payments, limiting their ability to take on additional debt [5]. - Changing Financial Environment: Although nominal interest rates have decreased, stricter lending standards have made it more difficult to obtain mortgages, impacting the real estate market [5]. - Regional Disparities: First-tier cities maintain relatively stable prices due to strong economic fundamentals, while third and fourth-tier cities face more significant price declines due to lack of industrial support and population outflow [5]. Impact on Stakeholders - Homeowners who purchased properties at high prices post-2020 are experiencing significant asset depreciation, with many entering negative equity situations [7]. - Young potential buyers face challenges due to income expectations and job market pressures, complicating their purchasing decisions [7]. - Families looking to upgrade their homes are caught in a dilemma of selling their current properties in a weak market while fearing further price declines on new purchases [7]. - Related industries, such as home renovation and construction, are also feeling the impact, with some companies reporting a 30% drop in business volume compared to the previous year [7]. Recommendations for Homebuyers - Rational Perspective: Recognizing that real estate should primarily serve as a residence rather than an investment vehicle is essential [8]. - Financial Prudence: Households should aim to keep their mortgage payments below 40% of their income to avoid financial strain [8]. - Diversified Investments: It is advisable not to invest all savings in real estate, considering other investment options like stocks and funds [9]. - Strategic Selling: Families with multiple properties should consider selling some to mitigate risks in the current market [10]. - Opportunistic Buying: First-time and upgrading buyers may find favorable conditions in the current market, but should focus on quality projects [10]. - Rental Options: The growing rental market offers a viable alternative, providing economic rationality for those unable to purchase homes [10]. - Seeking Assistance: Families struggling with mortgage payments should negotiate with banks for adjusted repayment plans [11].