Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-24 07:59Macro Perspective - The U.S. Markit manufacturing and services PMI declined in September but remains in expansion territory, indicating a cooling in prices [1] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that interest rates are still "moderately restrictive," highlighting the dual challenges facing monetary policy, while also suggesting that the stock market may be overvalued [1] Industry Analysis - According to Huazhong Futures, the 2025 RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw material security for smelters, although policy disruptions persist [1] - Domestic nickel imports remained high in July, with Indonesian nickel pig iron supply also stable in August, and electrolytic nickel production maintained at elevated levels [1] - Refined nickel social inventory saw a slight decrease [1] Demand Insights - Zhongcai Futures noted that stainless steel performance improved slightly in September, while real estate data from July showed weak seasonal performance [1] - In the new energy sector, the operating rate of ternary materials improved month-on-month in September, with demand showing slight improvement during the "golden September" period [1] Market Outlook - Copper Crown Jinyuan Futures indicated that disruptions from Indonesian mine closures are limited, with nickel ore prices remaining stable and no extreme weather impacts on overseas nickel mines [1] - Domestic southern port shipments are temporarily stagnant, leading to tight supply of intermediate products, with MHP spot resources in short supply and high nickel prices continuing to rise [1] - Nickel iron prices are still on an upward trend, but downstream acceptance remains weak, resulting in a slow pace of price increases [1] - The spot trading of pure nickel is sluggish, with no significant changes in premiums and discounts, suggesting that short-term nickel prices lack clear drivers and may undergo technical corrections [1]