美联储官员对降息模糊表态 新兴市场货币汇率下跌

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions has led to a stronger US dollar and a decline in emerging market currencies, with significant fluctuations observed in various currencies [2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve officials have expressed mixed signals regarding potential interest rate cuts, leading to market adjustments in expectations [2][3]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated that further rate cuts may be necessary, but emphasized the need for caution in decision-making [2]. - The market is currently driven by sentiment rather than concrete economic data, as noted by XP Investment's senior strategist Marco Oviedo [2]. Group 2: Emerging Market Currency Movements - The MSCI International Index tracking emerging market currencies fell by 0.2%, with currencies like the Hungarian Forint, Czech Koruna, Brazilian Real, and Polish Zloty dropping at least 0.8% [2]. - The Thai Baht depreciated due to a significant drop in export growth, attributed to US tariffs [3]. - Eastern European currencies have generally weakened amid heightened tensions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3]. Group 3: Latin America Developments - Argentina's currency, the Peso, saw an increase following US Treasury Secretary's comments about a potential $20 billion currency swap agreement and plans to purchase Argentine dollar bonds [3]. - The Argentine authorities lowered the repurchase rate to curb the Peso's appreciation [3]. Group 4: Stock Market Reactions - Emerging market stock indices rose by 0.4%, with technology giants Alibaba and Tencent, along with Saudi banking stocks, leading the gains [4]. - The Saudi stock market experienced its largest increase since 2020 following reports of eased foreign ownership restrictions [4]. - The Czech National Bank maintained interest rates for the third consecutive meeting, citing ongoing inflation risks [4].