美联储释放重磅信号！黄金还能涨多久？

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases of gold, which provide a safety net for prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of September 24, 2023, COMEX gold futures peaked at $3,803.6 per ounce, slightly retreating from a record high of $3,815.7 per ounce the previous day [1]. - The SPDR GOLD TRUST, the world's largest gold ETF, saw its holdings increase to 1,000.57 tons as of September 23, indicating strong institutional interest [1]. - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will likely implement two more rate cuts within the year, which is expected to support gold prices [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Influence - The chief investment strategist at Standard Chartered highlighted that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are a key factor behind the recent rise in gold prices, despite ongoing inflation risks [2]. - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, with a 76.2% chance of cumulative cuts of 50 basis points by December [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent comments suggest a cautious approach to further rate adjustments, emphasizing the risks in the job market [2][3]. Group 3: Central Bank and Institutional Buying - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, continue to increase their gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices [4][5]. - China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for ten consecutive months, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [4]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings and COMEX gold futures inventory reflects a growing preference for gold among investors [4]. Group 4: Factors Influencing Future Gold Prices - Key factors driving gold price increases include the expected decline of the US dollar, heightened geopolitical risks, and the low interest rate environment [5]. - The future trajectory of gold prices will largely depend on geopolitical developments and the status of US debt issues, with potential for price stability or downward pressure if tensions ease [5].