碳酸锂市场“供需两旺”格局能否延续？

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is shifting focus from supply-side issues to demand-side growth, driven by new policies in the energy storage market and the gradual industrialization of solid-state batteries [1][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current lithium carbonate market is characterized by a "dual prosperity" scenario, with ongoing inventory depletion and no significant supply-demand contradictions [1][6] - Lithium carbonate prices surged from 59,000 yuan/ton to over 90,000 yuan/ton between June and August, despite a prevailing oversupply situation [2][3] - Recent supply-side events have led to heightened expectations of supply contraction, impacting market dynamics [2][3] Inventory Trends - Inventory levels are consistently decreasing, with a weekly lithium carbonate production of 20,400 tons and a total inventory of 137,500 tons as of September 18 [4] - The inventory reduction trend is expected to continue, although overall market contradictions remain manageable [6][5] Policy and Market Outlook - The release of the "New Energy Storage Scale Construction Special Action Plan (2025-2027)" aims for a national new energy storage capacity of 180 GW by 2027, potentially driving demand for lithium carbonate [7][8] - The actual impact of this policy on lithium carbonate demand may be limited, as market forces will primarily drive storage capacity growth [8][9] Solid-State Battery Development - Solid-state batteries are emerging as a key technology in the energy storage sector, with significant government support for their development [10][11] - The industrialization of solid-state batteries is expected to enhance long-term demand for lithium carbonate, despite limited short-term impacts [11][12]