Group 1: Macro Environment - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, acknowledging a weakening labor market while mentioning rising inflation concerns. The dot plot indicates potential for two more rate cuts this year and one next year [2] - The current economic resilience in the U.S. is expected to enhance market liquidity, thereby boosting market risk appetite [2] Group 2: Copper Supply and Demand - There is a tight supply of copper raw materials, which may impact smelting operations. The copper concentrate supply remains constrained, with spot treatment charges around -40 USD/ton. Additionally, falling sulfuric acid prices are expected to pressure smelter profits [3] - Some smelting companies are likely to enter maintenance periods in September and October, leading to a potential decrease in refined copper production [3] - Long-term expectations suggest that global copper consumption will continue to grow, driven by sectors such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and infrastructure investments [4] Group 3: Short-term and Long-term Trends - In the short term, downstream enterprises are expected to stock up before the National Day holiday, which may lead to a decrease in inventory and strengthen spot premiums [4] - The construction and infrastructure sectors in China are showing signs of recovery, particularly in the electric grid industry, which supports copper consumption levels [4] - In the U.S., aging electrical grids require significant investment for upgrades, which will further increase copper demand. Additionally, economic stimulus measures in South and Southeast Asia are expected to bolster long-term copper demand [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The macro and micro factors are likely to resonate, providing phase support for copper prices. The Fed's rate cuts may lead to a weaker dollar index, further supporting market risk appetite [5] - The tight supply of copper raw materials is expected to impact refined copper production, with a potential for a balanced supply-demand scenario in the coming year [5]
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Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-09-24 23:21