需求缺乏进一步增长空间 铅价中期面临回调风险

Supply Side - The recent reduction in production at recycling lead smelters due to weak downstream demand and tight raw material supply has led to a significant contraction in lead ingot supply, while demand continues to grow [1] - Overseas supply may see a slight increase with the Endeavor mine ramping up shipments, the end of maintenance at Vedanta-Zinc India, and the resumption of operations at the Aripuan? mine [1] - Domestic raw material inventory at smelting plants has significantly declined, and processing fees continue to decrease, indicating that smelting plants are beginning to stockpile for winter [1] Demand Side - Increased demand for lead-acid batteries from electric bicycle manufacturers has led to a rise in operating rates for lead-acid battery companies, which in turn boosts lead ingot demand [2] - However, the automotive sector is experiencing a slowdown in electric vehicle sales growth and limited replacement demand for automotive batteries, negatively impacting lead ingot demand [2] - The trend of declining exports of lead-acid batteries is expected to become more pronounced in the fourth quarter, further constraining demand [2] Macro Perspective - The short-term path for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is relatively clear, but the market has already priced in these cuts, suggesting limited future impact [3] - Lead ingot supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance until October, providing strong support for lead prices [3] - As recycling lead enterprises gradually resume production and demand lacks further growth potential, the lead ingot supply-demand balance may shift towards surplus, posing a risk of price correction [3]