避险和配置需求升温 白银仍有上涨空间

Group 1 - Silver prices have shown a continuous upward trend since early June 2025, with London silver rising from $32.9/oz to $44.46/oz, an increase of over 35%, and Shanghai silver increasing from ¥8220/kg to ¥10482/kg, a rise of 27.5% [1] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a new round of interest rate cuts, lowering rates by 25 basis points in September, with a cautious yet optimistic tone in their statements, indicating a neutral to slightly hawkish stance [1] - The Fed's internal divisions suggest that while there may be one more rate cut this year, the overall outlook remains uncertain, impacting precious metal prices in the short term [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of two more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year is significant, which could positively influence silver prices in the medium to long term [2] - Despite a weak job market, inflation has not shown significant rebound, allowing for continued policy easing, with President Trump advocating for further rate cuts [2] - The Fed's commitment to maintaining policy independence suggests a gradual approach to rate cuts, with expectations of 50 basis points total this year and potential further cuts in 2026 [2] Group 3 - There remains a strong demand for safe-haven assets and allocation needs, driven by ongoing global trade uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [3] - Silver is increasingly viewed as a valuable asset for portfolio optimization and risk hedging, especially as gold prices rise [3] - The technical outlook for silver remains strong, with prices breaking above $40/oz, attracting trend-following investors [3] Group 4 - An analysis of the silver market indicates no mid-term bearish factors, suggesting a continued strong performance in the future [4] - The ongoing restructuring of global trade, monetary, and economic orders contributes to market uncertainty, maintaining a tight supply-demand relationship for precious metals [4] - The recommendation is to maintain a strategy of buying on dips rather than short selling [4]