Core Viewpoint - CICC forecasts that Tsugami Machine Tool (01651) will have an EPS of 2.6 and 3.1 CNY for FY2026/2027, with a CAGR of 22%, and sets a target price of 38.6 HKD, corresponding to a FY2026 P/E of 13x, indicating a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Established in 2003, the company is primarily focused on high-end CNC lathes, with a product matrix that includes machining centers and grinding machines [2] - For FY2025, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.262 billion CNY and a net profit of 780 million CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 36.6% and 63% respectively [2] Group 2: Market Position and Expansion - The metal cutting machine tool market is influenced by capital expenditures in the automotive and general manufacturing sectors, with a cumulative production growth rate of 14.6% in China from January to August 2025 [3] - The CNC machine tool market in China is projected to reach 71.5 billion CNY in 2024, with Tsugami holding a 4.1% market share, ranking first in the lathe segment [3] - The company announced the construction of its sixth factory in Pinghu in March 2025, which is expected to add an assembly capacity of approximately 3,000 units per year [3] Group 3: Profitability and Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained strong operational quality, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 40% since FY2023 [4] Group 4: Growth Opportunities - Since 2024, the company has actively engaged in AI liquid cooling connector processing and humanoid robot components, identifying potential catalysts such as advancements in liquid cooling infrastructure and humanoid robot grinding machines [5]
中金：首予津上机床中国“跑赢行业”评级 目标价38.6港元