燃料油价格大涨！特朗普“口风突变”，俄罗斯传来利多

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices continue to rise, leading to a significant increase in domestic fuel oil futures prices, with the main contracts showing substantial gains [1][4]. Price Movements - As of the midday close, the main 2601 contract rose by 3.70% to 2860 CNY/ton, while the 2510 contract surged by 5.45% to 2921 CNY/ton. The low-sulfur fuel oil main 2511 contract increased by 1.26% to 3387 CNY/ton [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The fluctuations in fuel oil futures prices are attributed to multiple factors, including potential restrictions on fuel oil exports from Russia to secure domestic supply and geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Russia [4][5]. - Recent drone attacks in Ukraine have reportedly caused Russia to lose approximately 300,000 barrels per day of refining capacity, which could lead to further production cuts if attacks persist [4][5]. Supply and Demand Factors - High-sulfur fuel oil prices are experiencing greater increases compared to low-sulfur fuel oil due to a higher risk premium associated with high-sulfur fuel oil, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply disruptions from Russia [4][5]. - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is tightening, with recent data indicating a drop in Russia's oil product exports to 1.94 million barrels per day in early September, the lowest since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while high-sulfur fuel oil faces potential supply increases and weakening demand, low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains ample. Investors are advised to monitor changes in crude oil prices and refining capacity in Russia, especially during the upcoming holiday period [6].