需求增长空间有限，铅价中期面临回调风险

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a tight balance between supply and demand, with a significant reduction in lead ingot supply due to production cuts in recycling plants, while demand continues to grow. [1][4] Supply Side Summary - Recycling plants are reducing production due to weak downstream demand and tight raw material supply, leading to a significant contraction in lead ingot supply, despite strong demand. [1] - Overseas supply is expected to see a slight increase with the Endeavor mine ramping up shipments and the resumption of operations at Vedanta-Zinc India and Aripuan mines. [1] - Domestic mining production is at a high level, but further increases are limited, maintaining high ore production in the short term. [1] - Raw material inventory at smelting plants has significantly declined, and processing fees are continuously decreasing, with some smelting plants beginning winter stockpiling early. [1] Demand Side Summary - Demand for lead ingots is supported by increased battery demand from electric bicycles, which has led to a rise in operating rates for lead-acid battery companies. [3] - However, the automotive sector is facing challenges, with a slowdown in electric vehicle sales and limited replacement demand for automotive batteries, negatively impacting overall demand for lead ingots. [3] - The end of the "export rush" in the automotive sector is expected to lead to a noticeable decline in battery exports in the fourth quarter. [3] - Overall, the demand for lead ingots is unlikely to see significant growth, and purchasing demand is expected to weaken after the National Day holiday. [3] Macroeconomic Summary - The short-term path for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is relatively clear, but the market has already priced in these cuts, suggesting limited future impact. [4] - Before October, the lead ingot supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance, providing strong support for lead prices. [4] - As recycling companies gradually resume production and demand lacks further growth potential, the lead ingot supply and demand may shift towards a looser balance, posing a risk of price correction. [4]