俄罗斯传来利多 燃料油价格大涨

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are rising, leading to an increase in domestic fuel oil futures prices, driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of the midday close on September 24, the main 2601 contract rose by 3.70% to 2860 yuan/ton, while the 2510 contract surged by 5.45% to 2921 yuan/ton [1]. - The low-sulfur fuel oil main 2511 contract increased by 1.26% to 3387 yuan/ton [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Russia may limit fuel oil exports to secure domestic supply, amid concerns over potential disruptions in Russian oil supply due to geopolitical tensions [1][2]. - The ongoing drone attacks by Ukraine have reportedly caused Russia to lose approximately 300,000 barrels per day of refining capacity [1][2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - High-sulfur fuel oil prices are experiencing a greater increase than low-sulfur fuel oil due to a higher risk premium associated with high-sulfur fuel oil [1][2]. - Russia's oil product exports fell to 1.94 million barrels per day in early September, the lowest since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil markets are facing tight supply conditions, with potential price support if crude oil supply does not increase and refinery maintenance is less than expected [2][3]. - Looking ahead to Q4, high-sulfur fuel oil may face increased supply and weakening demand, while low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains ample, necessitating close monitoring of market developments [3].