美股“涨不动”了？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is showing signs of fatigue after a rapid rise, with investors weighing high valuations against potential macro risks [1][2] Valuation Concerns - 19 out of 20 indicators suggest that the U.S. stock market is trading at expensive levels, with the S&P 500's 12-month forward P/E ratio reaching a high of 22.9, only surpassed during the dot-com bubble and the summer 2020 pandemic rebound [2][7] - There is a debate on whether the current high valuations are justified, with some analysts suggesting that increased visibility and predictability of corporate earnings may warrant a premium on current valuations, potentially viewing them as a "new normal" [8] Market Sentiment and Potential Risks - Wall Street strategists believe the market may enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with some indicating that the strong upward trend has not ended but is facing tightening risk-reward conditions [4][3] - Concerns about a potential "bubble" are growing, especially in tech stocks, as the S&P 500 has rebounded nearly 35% since April [4][12] Macro Economic Risks - Macro risks such as persistent inflation and a slowdown in the labor market could pose challenges for the market's progress [12] - Historical data suggests that despite current concerns, there are reasons for optimism, as past bull markets have shown resilience [14] Investor Behavior - Some investors are advised to hedge their portfolios as more participants chase this year's gains, which could increase downside risks [4][6] - Sentiment indicators show that the current market rise is based on cautious optimism rather than excessive speculation, providing a constructive outlook for the stock market [14]